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Sunday, September 9, 2007
Sampras' Slam record on Federer's mind
By Greg Garber, ESPN
NEW YORK -- When destiny's invitation was extended, with five fat first-set points on his serve, Novak Djokovic respectfully declined.
The dashing 20-year-old Serbian went quietly in the tiebreaker,
double-faulting twice on his last three serves. In the second set,
Djokovic had another set point (his seventh overall) hovering at waist
level, stepped into it and -- ripped it just long. He could have --
should have -- won the first two sets, but instead he lost them.
Admittedly, Roger Federer did not play his best in Sunday's U.S. Open final. But just as he did at Wimbledon against Rafael Nadal,
he managed to beat a talented, rising young rival. He spoiled
Djokovic's first Grand Slam final appearance with a typically ruthless
and mercenary effort, 7-6 (4), 7-6 (2), 6-4.
"I've enjoyed the challenge of young guys challenging me,"
Federer said afterward. "This is probably my biggest motivation out
there. You know, seeing them challenge me, beating them in the final,
it's really for me the best feeling, to be honest."
Upon those two less-than-lovely victories does the axis of
men's tennis rotate. Federer has, once again, distanced himself from
the field. He may not have had Maria Sharapova sitting in his family
and friends box, but there is this consolation: He is on the brink of
history.
Federer's 12th Grand Slam singles title pushes him past two
titans of tennis, Bjorn Borg and Rod Laver. The 26-year-old from
Switzerland is now tied with Roy Emerson and only two behind Pete
Sampras.
"I think about it a lot now, honestly," Federer said. "In the
beginning, I felt pushed a little bit into the corner, put under
pressure about the situation because you don't win Slams like that;
it's too tough.
"I feel these two-and-one-half weeks, it's so draining. I'm
exhausted in the end. I know how tough it is. So to come so close
already at my age is fantastic, and I really hope to break it."
Break down those Grand Slams in a simple graph that plots
titles against age, and you will find that Federer is far ahead of the
Sampras curve. In 2004, at the age of 22, Federer accelerated onward
and upward with startling speed.
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Roger
Federer won his 12th Grand Slam on Sunday, a month after turning 26.
Pete Sampras was one month shy of his 28th birthday when he won his
12th Slam. |
He won three of the
four Grand Slams that year, something he has now done three of the past
four years. This is a remarkable achievement, and it is difficult to
appreciate its degree of difficulty. Each Grand Slam draw features 128
men with a chance to win. Factor in the uncertainty of injuries, recent
form, training motivation, fatigue and widely varying court conditions,
and Federer still has won 12 of the past 18 Grand Slams contested.
For context, consider that Borg's 11 Grand Slams were won in an
impressive span of 21 appearances. Sampras' best streak was 9-for-17.
Perhaps the best way to compare Federer and Sampras is to look
at their Grand Slam titles versus the opportunities. Sampras won his
12th major in his 40th Grand Slam tournament. Federer needed only 34.
Sampras won his 13th and 14th Grand Slams in his 43rd and 52nd
attempts, respectively.
It is hard to imagine Federer needing 18 more Slams to collect
two more titles. That's the margin for error he has generated over
Sampras.
To review: Federer has won five straight Wimbledons, four straight U.S. Opens and two straight Australian Opens. Any questions?
Federer's dominance has folks on the message boards, in the
media and even the fans at Arthur Ashe Stadium keening for a new
champion, aching for some drama. Why? You are seeing a champion in his
absolute prime; this is as good as it gets.
The past two years, only Nadal has prevented Federer from
winning a single-season Grand Slam. Based on those two finals (Federer
lost in four sets), it's conceivable that Federer could actually break
through at Roland Garros and win his first French Open title. It is
just as possible that Nadal will return the favor at Wimbledon, where
he has reached the past two finals and almost beat Federer in a
spirited five-set match in July.
Even with Federer's three majors this year, there is
evidence that his game has maxed out. He lost two sets on the way to
the final, something he hadn't done since last year's French Open. And
giving Djokovic seven set points is not something that, going forward,
is advisable. You get the idea that with another year of experience
Djokovic won't tighten in so many big moments.
"I think I was mentally weaker today on the important points," Djokovic said, "than he was mentally stronger."
So let's break it down and see how many Grand Slam titles Federer is likely to collect by the time he leaves the game.
Based on his public comments, those close to the game believe
Federer is likely to play at least until he's 30. So, to be
conservative, let's give him four more seasons. That's 16 Grand Slam
opportunities. For two of those years, 2008-09, he is still likely to
be in his prime and supremely motivated to break Sampras' record.
Federer is likely to benefit from the expected faster surface
at the Australian Open, so give him one of the next two. Considering
the improvement of Nadal and Djokovic, again, conservatively, give him
one more Wimbledon and U.S. Open title. That's three in the next two
years, and that would be enough to break the record.
Would it be possible for Federer to go two years, 2010 and 2011, without adding to that total? Not likely.
"I think he'll get to 18," said Bud Collins, the longtime tennis maven and a contributor to ESPN.com.
Said Peter Bodo of Tennis Magazine, who also is a contributor
to ESPN.com. "Maybe 16, 17? He could have 18. It's pretty phenomenal.
You kind of run out of things to say. Just sit back and watch
excellence.
"The late Open era has blown up the record book. It seems like
every generation produces the greatest player ever. After Laver, they
used to debate whether Connors was the greatest, and now Federer.
"The landscape has changed. Maybe the all-time Grand Slam winner someday will have 30 Grand Slams."
What about Federer? How many does he think he'll finish with?
"I don't know," he said, shaking his head. "I really don't know. I mean, I hope more than Pete."
The two have grown friendly, and after the ATP's year-end
tournament in Shanghai this November there will be three exhibitions
between Federer and Sampras in the Far East. To be followed, Federer
said, by a March 10, 2008 exhibition at Madison Square Garden in New
York.
"I think Sampras and Federer have this thing in common,"
Djokovic said. "They are very similar in that they are mentally very
strong in the important moments; they always play their best. They're
ice-cold faces, just going for the shot.
"That's why they're [the] two best players ever for me."
Federer, clearly, is growing more comfortable in his role of tennis' leading man.
An hour before the late-afternoon match, seven-time Grand Slam
titlist John McEnroe walked through the locker room and was stunned to
see Federer wearing his all-black evening outfit.
"Are you serious?" asked McEnroe, aware that black tends to make the sun feel even hotter.
Federer smiled and nodded.
"Very gutsy," McEnroe said.
Bring the heat, Darth Federer seemed to be saying; I am not afraid to be the villain.
"I thought all-black is kind of a cool thing," Federer said. "I can only pull it off in New York."
There was a decided edge to Federer in his postmatch press
conference. He talked some subtle, high-end trash (see his first quote
above) -- and even though he was smiling, he seemed quite serious.
Federer was asked if Djokovic, ranked No. 3, might be ready to take No. 2 from Nadal.
"It's getting closer," Federer said. "It probably depends on
who finishes better at the end of the year. No. 2, No. 3 doesn't matter
much.
"It's No. 1 that matters. That's how it goes."
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