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January 17, 2011
Aussie a harbinger of Federer's future
By Ravi Ubha, ESPN
MELBOURNE, Australia -- A fine line exists between success and failure in sports, and tennis is no exception. Roger Federer, arguably the greatest player of all time, discovered that to his discontent last year.
Four times Federer lost after holding match points, including in the U.S. Open against Novak Djokovic. Djokovic produced a couple of huge, and risky, forehands on the verge of defeat, depriving Federer of a spot in the finale. For the first time since 2003, the Swiss failed to reach at least two Grand Slam finals in a single season. Getting knocked out in the quarterfinals at his second home, Wimbledon, and the French Open was more cause for concern.
Out went the staggering semifinal streak at majors, perhaps his most imposing record.
He was slipping, as the stats proved, although not in terminal decline, as some suggested.
"He's 29 years old, but the last few years, people want to retire the guy," Federer's agent, Tony Godsick, said in an interview on the eve of the Australian Open.
Meanwhile, his main rival rolled. If Rafael Nadal walks away from the campaign's maiden major with the title, he'll have captured four in a row, a feat last achieved by Rod Laver 42 years ago, when grass was mostly the surface of choice. Laver and Federer, incidentally, said that should Nadal triumph, it wouldn't quite duplicate a calendar-year Slam; Andy Murray disagreed.
Things look much better now for Federer, as they generally do in Australia, a country that means a lot to him. Federer bludgeoned Slovakian Lukas Lacko, losing just five games, in Monday's first round, a far cry from his 2010 struggle versus enigmatic Russian Igor Andreev in the opener.
Federer improved to 27-2 in his past 29 matches, a spell that included winning the World Tour Finals, downing Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and dangerous Swede Robin Soderling in the process. In an effort to find old form, Federer loaded up on matches in the fall like never before.
"Federer has been playing fantastic tennis in the last three, four months," Djokovic told reporters Saturday.
New co-coach Paul Annacone, who matches Federer's personality and has a pedigree of working with champions (hello, Pete), has Federer playing more aggressive. Free of any back problems, his serve is looking stellar again. Boosting Federer further, Nadal might be a tad less than 100 percent, suffering the aftereffects of a fever.
But as the world No. 2 and those in his camp know all too well, if he doesn't defend his title in Australia and win a 17th major, more talk of a decline is sure to follow. The next major is about five months away and on Nadal's most productive surface, clay.
"If people say that if he doesn't win the Australian Open that it's over for him, I don't know what to say to them other than maybe they're right and maybe they're wrong," Godsick said. "He's healthy, though, and enjoys the sport more than ever. I don't think people understand that he loves the sport even when he's not winning. The training doesn't bother him; the travel doesn't bother him; the grind doesn't."
Watching the Federers on Sunday near the men's locker room, there was no disputing that. Federer's 18-month-old twin daughters, Charlene Riva and Myla Rose, pranced gleefully, with a little assistance. There was minimum external fuss, too.
Federer appeared utterly relaxed following Rally for Relief, a charity match he largely initiated to benefit victims of flooding in eastern Australia, particularly Queensland. About $1.8 million was raised. Yes, Federer still found the time to think of others, and not go into a shell, as he attempts to end his Grand Slam drought.
"I feel my game is exactly where I want it to be," Federer told reporters. "That's all I can really ask for. I'd love to win. If I don't win, look, someone else was better."
Federer appointed Nadal as the favorite, and not many would disagree. Nadal, though, bizarrely said he wasn't even the clear second favorite, aligning himself with Djokovic, Murray and Soderling, who has never advanced past the second round in Melbourne.
Annacone, never one to exaggerate, said his pupil could go on to win 20 majors on current form.
This fortnight is pivotal to that lofty prediction.
Ravi Ubha is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com.
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